IR-PREP - Increased Monitoring Systems in anticipation of El Niño impact on Food Security for Zambia in 2016

This Operation expired in February 2016.

The Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) has forecasted a high likelihood of an El Niño season for the 2015/16 cropping season. This is generally characterised by normal-to-below normal rainfall across the southern half of SADC region for the next cropping season.

This comes against the backdrop of a poor 2014/15 agricultural season which resulted in the current food deficit situation in countries such as Malawi, Zimbabwe and Madagascar. Zambiais the second biggest exportable maize producer in the region and for this season, may have produced just enough to cover domestic requirements and marginally cover the demand from neighbouring countries. This adds to the concerns about the likely increase in the regional market price for maize.

The Country Office has started disaster preparedness activities with the upcoming season with Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit (DMMU) and the national contingency plan is under finalization. Given the fact that Zambia is one of the major maize contributors in the region, it is important to monitor commodity market indicators.This IR-PREP (2 November 2015 -1 February 2016) will therefore focus on enhancing the real-time monitoring as well as data and analysis needs in anticipation of the worst case scenario resulting from El Niño in Zambia as of 2016.